• All
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
27/04 17:00Hidden LeagueGreece
100%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
27/04 12:00Hidden LeagueChina PR
97%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
26/04 18:30Hidden LeagueSlovakia
97%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
26/04 13:30Hidden LeagueGermany
94%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
26/04 13:30Hidden LeagueGermany
94%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
26/04 14:00Hidden LeagueEngland
94%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
27/04 12:00Hidden LeagueDenmark
94%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
26/04 18:45Hidden LeagueBelgium
94%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
27/04 21:30Hidden LeagueBrazil
94%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
26/04 23:30Hidden LeaguePeru
94%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
26/04 11:35Hidden LeagueChina PR
94%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
27/04 07:00Hidden LeagueAustralia
94%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
26/04 18:45Hidden LeagueRepublic of Ireland
94%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
26/04 13:30Hidden LeagueGermany
91%
SK Sturm Graz - FK Austria Wien
27/04 15:00Admiral BundesligaAustria
91%
Le Havre - Monaco
26/04 17:00Ligue 1France
91%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
27/04 08:30Hidden LeagueAustria
91%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
27/04 16:15Hidden LeagueIceland
91%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
27/04 19:15Hidden LeagueIceland
91%
Kristiansund - Vålerenga
27/04 15:00EliteserienNorway
91%
Bodø / Glimt - KFUM
27/04 15:00EliteserienNorway
91%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
26/04 14:00Hidden LeagueFinland
91%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
26/04 07:00Hidden LeagueAustralia
91%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
27/04 16:00Hidden LeagueCyprus
91%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
27/04 15:30Hidden LeaguePoland
91%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
27/04 15:30Hidden LeagueGermany
88%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
26/04 19:05Hidden LeagueFrance
88%
Vestri - Breidablik
27/04 14:00PepsideildIceland
88%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
27/04 15:00Hidden LeagueNorway
88%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
27/04 17:15Hidden LeagueNorway
88%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
27/04 11:00Hidden LeagueRussia
88%
SC Heerenveen - NEC
27/04 12:30EredivisieNetherlands
88%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
27/04 12:30Hidden LeagueNetherlands
88%
Internacional - Juventude
26/04 19:00Serie ABrazil
88%
Hearts - Dundee
26/04 14:00PremiershipScotland
88%
St. Mirren - Rangers
26/04 14:00PremiershipScotland
88%
Changchun Yatai - Chengdu Qianbao
26/04 07:30Super LeagueChina PR
88%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
26/04 16:00Hidden LeagueCyprus
88%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
26/04 16:30Hidden LeagueNorthern Ireland
88%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
27/04 10:30Hidden LeagueItaly
85%
Floridsdorfer AC - Amstetten
26/04 12:302. LigaAustria
85%
Sarpsborg 08 - Strømsgodset
27/04 15:00EliteserienNorway
85%
Mjällby - Degerfors
27/04 12:00AllsvenskanSweden
85%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
27/04 12:00Hidden LeagueSweden
85%
Olimpiyets - Akhmat Grozny
26/04 11:00Premier LeagueRussia
85%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
27/04 17:00Hidden LeaguePortugal
85%
Vitória SC - Rio Ave
27/04 17:00Liga PortugalPortugal
85%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
27/04 14:45Hidden LeagueNetherlands
85%
Flamengo - Corinthians
27/04 19:00Serie ABrazil
85%
Comerciantes Unidos - Alianza Lima
26/04 20:30Primera DivisionPeru
85%
Sivasspor - Antalyaspor
26/04 13:00Super LigTurkey
85%
Kayserispor - Rizespor
27/04 16:00Super LigTurkey
85%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
26/04 20:30Hidden LeagueUSA
85%
LA Galaxy - Portland Timbers
28/04 01:00Major League SoccerUSA
85%
Aberdeen - Hibernian
26/04 14:00PremiershipScotland
85%
GOSK Gabela - Velez
27/04 15:30Premier LigaBosnia and Herzegovina
85%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
26/04 16:30Hidden LeagueNorthern Ireland
85%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
26/04 16:30Hidden LeagueNorthern Ireland
85%
Loughgall - Cliftonville
26/04 16:30PremiershipNorthern Ireland
85%
Motor Lublin - Cracovia Kraków
26/04 15:30EkstraklasaPoland
85%
Górnik Zabrze - Widzew Lodz
27/04 12:45EkstraklasaPoland
85%
LASK Linz - Austria Klagenfurt
26/04 15:00Admiral BundesligaAustria
83%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
26/04 14:00Hidden LeagueEngland
83%
AFC Bournemouth - Manchester United
27/04 13:00Premier LeagueEngland
83%
Villarreal - Espanyol
27/04 14:15La LigaSpain
83%
Luton Town - Coventry City
26/04 11:30ChampionshipEngland
83%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
27/04 15:00Hidden LeagueNorway
83%
AGF - København
27/04 14:00SuperligaDenmark
83%
Midtjylland - Nordsjælland
27/04 16:00SuperligaDenmark
83%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
27/04 13:30Hidden LeagueRussia
83%
Westerlo - Mechelen
26/04 16:15Pro LeagueBelgium
83%
O'Higgins - Deportes Iquique
27/04 16:30Primera DivisionChile
83%
Santa Fe - Boyacá Chicó
27/04 19:00Liga BetPlayColombia
83%
Nacional - Wanderers
26/04 23:15Primera DivisionUruguay
83%
Progreso - Liverpool
27/04 18:15Primera DivisionUruguay
83%
České Budějovice - Mladá Boleslav
26/04 11:30Chance LigaCzech Republic
83%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
26/04 17:00Hidden LeagueCzech Republic
83%
OFI - Asteras Tripolis
26/04 17:00Super LeagueGreece
83%
IMT Novi Beograd - Tekstilac Odzaci
26/04 15:30Super LigaSerbia
83%
Partizan - Radnički Kragujevac
27/04 17:30Super LigaSerbia
83%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
27/04 18:00Hidden LeagueSerbia
83%
Žilina - Spartak Trnava
27/04 16:00Niké LigaSlovakia
83%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
27/04 16:00Hidden LeagueSerbia
82%
Bochum - 1. FC Union Berlin
27/04 13:30BundesligaGermany
80%
RC Strasbourg Alsace - AS Saint-Étienne
26/04 15:00Ligue 1France
80%
Montpellier Hérault SC - Stade de Reims
27/04 15:15Ligue 1France
80%
Middlesbrough - Norwich City FC
26/04 14:00ChampionshipEngland
80%
Värnamo - Norrköping
27/04 14:30AllsvenskanSweden
80%
Sirius - Halmstad
27/04 14:30AllsvenskanSweden
80%
Boavista - Sporting CP
27/04 19:30Liga PortugalPortugal
80%
Sporting Charleroi - Dender
26/04 18:45Pro LeagueBelgium
80%
Santos - Bragantino
27/04 23:30Serie ABrazil
80%
Huachipato - Unión Española
27/04 21:30Primera DivisionChile
80%
Sportivo Ameliano - Libertad
27/04 23:15Division 1Paraguay
80%
Peñarol - Cerro
27/04 21:15Primera DivisionUruguay
80%
Eyüpspor - Galatasaray
27/04 16:00Super LigTurkey
80%
Columbus Crew - SJ Earthquakes
26/04 23:30Major League SoccerUSA
80%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
26/04 11:30Hidden LeagueScotland
80%
Pohang Steelers - Seoul
27/04 05:00K League 1Korea Republic
80%
Daejeon Citizen - Gangwon
27/04 07:30K League 1Korea Republic
80%
Larne - Glentoran
26/04 16:30PremiershipNorthern Ireland
80%
Lechia Gdańsk - Piast Gliwice
26/04 12:45EkstraklasaPoland
80%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
27/04 10:15Hidden LeaguePoland
80%
SK Rapid Wien - Blau-Weiß Linz
27/04 12:30Admiral BundesligaAustria
79%
Southampton - Fulham
26/04 14:00Premier LeagueEngland
79%
Nashville SC - Chicago Fire
27/04 00:30Major League SoccerUSA
79%
Eintracht Frankfurt - RB Leipzig
26/04 16:30BundesligaGermany
77%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
27/04 15:30Hidden LeagueEngland
77%
Juventus - Monza
27/04 16:00Serie AItaly
77%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
27/04 15:15Hidden LeagueFrance
77%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
27/04 12:30Hidden LeagueNorway
77%
Santa Rosa PNP - Melgar
27/04 18:15Primera DivisionPeru
77%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
27/04 13:45Hidden LeagueUruguay
77%
Trabzonspor - Alanyaspor
27/04 13:00Super LigTurkey
77%
Toronto - New York City
26/04 18:30Major League SoccerUSA
77%
New York RB - Montreal Impact
26/04 20:30Major League SoccerUSA
77%
Motherwell - St. Johnstone
26/04 14:00PremiershipScotland
77%
Katowice - Legia Warszawa
26/04 18:15EkstraklasaPoland
77%
SCM Gloria Buzau - Botoşani
27/04 11:30Liga 1Romania
77%
Ružomberok - Zemplín Michalovce
26/04 16:00Niké LigaSlovakia
77%
Olympique de Marseille - Stade Brestois 29
27/04 18:45Ligue 1France
76%
Preston North End - Plymouth Argyle
26/04 14:00ChampionshipEngland
76%
Viktoria Plzeň - Sparta Praha
27/04 16:30Chance LigaCzech Republic
76%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
26/04 15:30Hidden LeagueSlovenia
76%
VfL Wolfsburg - SC Freiburg
26/04 13:30BundesligaGermany
74%
Venezia - AC Milan
27/04 10:30Serie AItaly
74%
Genk - Antwerp
27/04 14:00Pro LeagueBelgium
74%
Ayacucho - Alianza Atlético
26/04 18:00Primera DivisionPeru
74%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
26/04 18:45Hidden LeagueBosnia and Herzegovina
74%
Zrinjski - Siroki Brijeg
27/04 17:45Premier LigaBosnia and Herzegovina
74%
Carrick Rangers - Glenavon
26/04 14:00PremiershipNorthern Ireland
74%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
27/04 18:45Hidden LeagueItaly
73%
FC Nantes - Toulouse FC
27/04 15:15Ligue 1France
73%
Rostov - Lokomotiv Moskva
26/04 13:30Premier LeagueRussia
73%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
26/04 16:30Hidden LeagueRussia
73%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
27/04 16:30Hidden LeagueBelgium
73%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
27/04 19:00Hidden LeagueChile
73%
Monterrey - Pachuca
28/04 01:30Liga MXMexico
73%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
27/04 13:00Hidden LeagueSlovenia
73%
Celje - Olimpija
27/04 15:301. SNLSlovenia
73%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
26/04 13:30Hidden LeagueGermany
71%
Atalanta Bergamo - US Lecce
27/04 18:45Serie AItaly
71%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
26/04 14:00Hidden LeagueEngland
71%
HJK - VPS
26/04 16:00VeikkausliigaFinland
71%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
26/04 19:30Hidden LeaguePortugal
71%
Palmeiras - Bahia
27/04 21:30Serie ABrazil
71%
Deportes Tolima - La Equidad
26/04 23:20Liga BetPlayColombia
71%
Fortaleza CEIF - Independiente Medellín
27/04 21:10Liga BetPlayColombia
71%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
27/04 11:00Hidden LeagueCzech Republic
71%
Wolfsberger AC - FC Salzburg
27/04 12:30Admiral BundesligaAustria
70%
Brighton & Hove Albion - West Ham United
26/04 14:00Premier LeagueEngland
70%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
26/04 11:30Hidden LeagueEngland
70%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
27/04 15:30Hidden LeagueFinland
70%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
26/04 14:00Hidden LeagueCzech Republic
70%
Hull City - Derby County
26/04 14:00ChampionshipEngland
68%
AIK - Elfsborg
27/04 14:00AllsvenskanSweden
68%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
27/04 13:00Hidden LeagueFrance
68%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
26/04 14:00Hidden LeagueEngland
68%
Gent - Anderlecht
27/04 11:30Pro LeagueBelgium
68%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
27/04 21:30Hidden LeagueBrazil
68%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
27/04 01:30Hidden LeagueColombia
68%
Gazişehir Gaziantep - Fenerbahçe
26/04 16:00Super LigTurkey
68%
Cincinnati - Sporting KC
26/04 18:30Major League SoccerUSA
68%
Colorado Rapids - Seattle Sounders
27/04 01:30Major League SoccerUSA
68%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
27/04 23:00Hidden LeagueMexico
68%
Wuhan Three Towns - Tianjin Teda
27/04 11:00Super LeagueChina PR
68%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
26/04 14:00Hidden LeagueBosnia and Herzegovina
68%
Qingdao Red Lions - Shenyang Urban
26/04 07:30League OneChina PR
68%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
27/04 22:00Hidden LeagueArgentina
65%
Sportivo Luqueño - General Caballero JLM
27/04 21:00Division 1Paraguay
65%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
27/04 13:00Hidden LeagueItaly
65%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
27/04 13:00Hidden LeagueItaly
65%
Lyngby - Silkeborg
27/04 12:00SuperligaDenmark
65%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
27/04 14:30Hidden LeaguePortugal
65%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
26/04 21:30Hidden LeagueBrazil
65%
Belgrano - Argentinos Juniors
26/04 22:00Liga Profesional de FútbolArgentina
65%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
26/04 20:00Hidden LeagueChile
65%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
27/04 16:00Hidden LeagueUruguay
65%
Charlotte - New England
26/04 23:30Major League SoccerUSA
65%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
26/04 16:00Hidden LeagueCyprus
65%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
26/04 14:00Hidden LeagueRomania
65%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
26/04 11:30Hidden LeagueChina PR
65%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
26/04 19:00Hidden LeagueChile
64%
Alianza Petrolera - Rionegro Águilas
26/04 21:10Liga BetPlayColombia
62%
Chelsea - Everton
26/04 11:30Premier LeagueEngland
62%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
26/04 14:00Hidden LeagueEngland
62%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
26/04 14:00Hidden LeagueBelgium
62%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
26/04 18:00Hidden LeagueArgentina
62%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
28/04 00:15Hidden LeagueArgentina
62%
River Plate - Danubio
26/04 18:00Primera DivisionUruguay
62%
Orlando City - Atlanta United
26/04 23:15Major League SoccerUSA
62%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
27/04 18:00Hidden LeagueRomania
62%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
27/04 11:00Hidden LeagueChina PR
62%
Dinamo Moskva - Zenit
26/04 11:00Premier LeagueRussia
61%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
26/04 11:00Hidden LeagueChina PR
61%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
27/04 18:30Hidden LeagueArgentina
59%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
27/04 22:00Hidden LeagueArgentina
59%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
26/04 19:00Hidden LeagueColombia
59%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
26/04 22:00Hidden LeagueParaguay
59%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
27/04 11:35Hidden LeagueChina PR
59%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
27/04 13:00Hidden LeagueBosnia and Herzegovina
59%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
26/04 17:00Hidden LeagueGreece
59%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
27/04 07:00Hidden LeagueChina PR
59%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
27/04 10:15Hidden LeagueNetherlands
58%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
26/04 23:00Hidden LeagueBrazil
58%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
27/04 05:00Hidden LeagueAustralia
58%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
27/04 13:00Hidden LeagueFinland
56%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
27/04 23:20Hidden LeagueColombia
56%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
27/04 13:00Hidden LeagueTurkey
56%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
27/04 19:00Hidden LeagueUSA
56%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
27/04 07:30Hidden LeagueKorea Republic
56%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
26/04 17:00Hidden LeagueRomania
56%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
26/04 16:00Hidden LeagueSlovakia
55%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
26/04 14:00Hidden LeagueEngland
53%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
26/04 17:00Hidden LeaguePortugal
53%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
26/04 16:00Hidden LeagueTurkey
53%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
27/04 13:30Hidden LeagueCzech Republic
53%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
26/04 15:00Hidden LeagueAustria
53%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
27/04 20:30Hidden LeaguePeru
53%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
26/04 13:00Hidden LeagueSlovenia
53%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
27/04 23:00Hidden LeagueUSA
50%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
26/04 12:00Hidden LeagueFinland
50%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
28/04 01:30Hidden LeagueColombia
50%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
26/04 09:35Hidden LeagueAustralia
50%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
26/04 21:30Hidden LeagueBrazil
47%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
27/04 15:00Hidden LeagueNorway
44%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
27/04 16:00Hidden LeagueRussia
44%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
26/04 14:30Hidden LeaguePortugal
44%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
27/04 23:00Hidden LeaguePeru
44%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
26/04 20:15Hidden LeagueUruguay
44%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
27/04 21:00Hidden LeagueUSA
44%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
26/04 07:30Hidden LeagueKorea Republic
44%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
27/04 17:00Hidden LeagueGreece
44%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
27/04 16:00Hidden LeagueSlovakia
41%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
26/04 14:00Hidden LeagueScotland
41%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
26/04 14:00Hidden LeagueEngland
38%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
27/04 00:00Hidden LeagueBrazil
38%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
27/04 00:30Hidden LeagueUSA
35%
Hidden Home - Hidden Away
26/04 20:00Hidden LeagueArgentina
32%

Over/Under bets with Overlyzer » your tool for over and under goal bets

With our Over/Under tool you get all statistical probabilities for goal counts of upcoming soccer games ➜ your ultimate advantage for Over/Under bets

Over/Under Betting with massive odds and high limits at 22Bet

How to bet successfully on over/under!

We have already explained what an over/under bet is in our article on special bets. How many goals are scored in a game? Is it three or more? Is it less than three? The notorious over/under bets are certainly one of the most interesting and exciting markets that the world of betting websites has to offer. But what betting strategy should you use to win?

The best betting sites offer statistics and direct comparisons before a duel between two teams or athletes. In most cases, however, they do not go far back into the past and leave the bettor with rather superficial information.

Generally, you can find statistics for the last five direct duels, as well as the last five games of the respective teams very quickly. Of course, the form of the day is important and also the last direct duels are not insignificant; but a tendency of how likely a high or low number of goals has occurred in previous match, is not necessarily left behind through these information.

To find out the actual scoring potential of two teams, you have to dig a little deeper. You should not only use the last few weeks as a benchmark, but a longer period of time! Of course, it can happen that a team has had a run in the last few weeks, but that doesn’t say much about the actual potential of this team.

Thus, we have to take a larger sample than the one suggested by the best betting websites in our reviews with their rather superficial statistics. Nonetheless, we shouldn’t make the mistake of calculating an average value. Rather, we should count how high the rate of over or under games was.

Do not be blinded by the average

Let’s take a closer look at the matter: We decide to find a team that we think is a good candidate for an over 2.5. Let’s take AC Milan’s Serie A home games between December 2015 and November 2016 as an example.

There was a total of 18 games, so it’s a representative sample. A total of 46 goals were scored in these 18 games, which corresponds to an average goal of 2.55 per game. We are already above the magical limit of 2.5. In those 18 Milan home games, there were an average of three goals rather than fewer than three goals.

However, there were some results that falsified this average because they were well above the 2.5 goals. For example a 3-3 against Frosinone, a 3-2 against Torino and a 4-3 against Sassuolo.

If we take a closer look on these 18 games and pick out those that actually noted three goals or more, we only get seven. Even if the average looks promising at first glance, you would have only won 39% of your over 2.5 bets if you had bet on it at each of these 18 AC Milan home games. This is how the average amount of goals can harm you instead of benefit you, when looking to bet over/under successfully.

Take a closer look at the number of over/under games

It makes sense to count the number of overs and unders – but not to calculate the goal average. This can also be applied to home games, away games or all games. In addition, it makes perfect sense to consider these counts in relation to the competition. For example, when Celtic hosts one outsider after the other in the Scottish Premier League, it is a different situation than when they have to play against FC Barcelona in the UEFA Champions League Betting.

Depending on the sport, you should take a set number of games as a sample. It also depends on how stretched the period is. If you use two whole seasons as a benchmark in football betting, this can also be counterproductive, especially if the squad of a team has changed.

We generally suggest a sample of 15 to 30 games. To be even more precise, it could be narrowed to 20 to 30 games.

In addition, it is advisable to stick to the standard amount for over/under bets – i.e. over 2.5 or under 2.5. Of course, there are always situations or games where you can find a decent value in an under 1.5 or an over 4.5, but in reality, these are the bets that online bookmakers are very fond of making money with. As with all other bets, the following applies: compare the odds, try to assess whether an odd is fair and then you will find enough value bets with the over/under 2.5 variant.

Secure your over/under bet

As always, the same applies here: if you want to be even more secure with your live bets, then go deeper. In the case of over/under bets, you can achieve this, among other things, by evaluating shots in relation to goals.

  • Number of shots by a team
  • How many of them went on goal?
  • What is the conversion rate?

But other statistics or observations can also help you with your over/under bets. For example, the question of how a team approaches a game. Do you try to score the first goal and then maintain the result in the best possible way? Or does a team go straight for the second goal once they lead 1-0. Of course, it also makes sense to consider the current shape of a team and to take into account runs or phases of weakness; but, a closer look at the larger sample shows whether the team generally has the potential for many goals – towards the one direction or the other!

The “safe” over/under games

Chelsea FC hosts Burnley FC at home and have won the last seven home games. The online bookmakers offer an average of @ 1.15 for a win for the Blues. Well, nothing can go wrong here.

However, you wouldn’t want to bet a lot of money on this game. The reason is relatively simple to explain: it can’t practically be a value bet. Let us now quantify a Chelsea win, for example, with a probability of 92%. There is no one hundred percent bet, because something unpredictable can always happen. A stupid goal conceded from a set piece and then a deep-laying opponent. An early red card. Or, one of those days when the ball just won’t go in.

Not really interesting, isn’t it? Not even after we put the value into the Kelly formula to calculate the ideal percentage bet from our bankroll:

According to this calculation, you should bet 38.6% of your bankroll, and with that high probability you would break your concept and your betting ideals. If you also consider now that 38.6% of your bankroll multiplied by a win rate of @ 1.15 – you would noticed that a really large bankroll is required in order to get decent profit. Eventually, you will inevitably reach the conclusion that you are losing significantly more, than you can actually win.

But what if I combine a few of “these” games?

A typical rookie mistake is to combine several games from this category. Win Chelsea, win Bayern, win Barcelona, ​win Real Madrid, win Juventus … and in the end you get odds of around @ 2.20; however, will all the combined bets go well when so many stadiums around the world are concerned?

In reality, with such a bet you only increase the bookmaker’s profit margin. No matter how many “safe bets” you combine, they never turn into value bets.

Think in a different direction: find a good over, an interesting under, maybe a handicap bet that you probably believe in. Never stop analyzing your bets, calculate their value, do not deviate from your bankroll management. There is no such thing as a favourite accumulator bet that you can practically “only win”. On the contrary: these are the bets that will crush you sooner or later.

Limit yourself to the essentials, analyze thoroughly, do not overdo it with types of bets or the number of combined games. The secret to accumulator and system bets is that absolutely every pick you put in is a value bet.

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