Italy vs. England: Nations League Odds, Prediction & Betting Pick

Reading time: 8 min (1512 words)

The Nations League is set for a rematch of the 2021 European Championship final on September 23, with Italy hosting England, who are currently bottom of the group with just two points. We provide you with some predictions on the match and show you what is the best betting strategy for the clash between Italy and England.

Italy are surprisingly not in the 2022 World Cup, because they failed to qualify against North Macedonia. Since then, Italy’s international campaign has been running with a sour taste. England, on the other hand, are one of the 2022 World Cup favorites and is currently in the process of forming a team that can compete for the tournament title. The two upcoming games in the Nations League against Italy and Germany are very important for the Three Lions.

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bet on Italy to draw with England with odds 3,20 @ Bet365

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Latest betting odds Italy vs. England

The sports betting tips on the match are currently very balanced, although Italy is slightly favored because of the home advantage. At our best bookmaker Bet365 you get 2.5 times your stake back for an Italian win. England has odds of @2.80, which is only slightly higher. With odds of @3.20, a draw is also quite likely in this match, which is not surprising given the balance of power between the two teams.

Bet365 Odds Nations League Italy vs. England
Nations League Betting Italy vs. England – Bet365 odds

Fun Fact: Italy is one of only four countries that England has a negative international match record against. The other three are Brazil, the Netherlands and Uruguay. Against Italy, England has won only eight games in its history so far, while ten have been lost. However, the most frequent result is a draw, which has happened 11 times so far.

The last direct duel between Italy and England

On June 11, 2022, the first meeting between the two teams in the UEFA Nations League resulted in a goalless draw. The match was definitely not a spectacular display of both teams and major chances were scarce, although England had slight advantages in comparison to the European champions over the 90 minutes.

It was noticeable that England built up about 59% possession in this match, although Italy is currently a team that likes to circulate the ball in its own ranks.

Overlyzer Live Trends England vs. Italy
In the home match, England was a somewhat clear odds-on favorite than Italy is now in front of its own audience in the second leg. Nevertheless, the teams did not get beyond a 0-0.

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The last games of both teams

The playoff loss in the World Cup qualifiers against the underdog North Macedonia caused a serious setback for Italy. As a result, the Nations League has not yet been crowned with great success. So far, there has only been a 2-1 home win over Hungary, but also an outright 2-5 defeat in Germany.

Even before the Nations League games in June, Italy faced Argentina in the CONMEBOL-UEFA Cup of Champions, where the winner of the Copa America meets the European champions. Here, Italy was clearly defeated by the Argentines.

Italy International Games June 2022

DateOpponentVenueResultXGPossessionAccuracyDuels won
01/06/2022ArgentinaN0 – 30.68 : 2.2246,37%87,11%53,85%
04/06/2022GermanyH1 – 10.75 : 1.4633,81%79,42%54,27%
07/06/2022HungaryH2 – 11.62 : 1.0756,38%83,23%54,05%
11/06/2022EnglandA0 – 01.22 : 2.1739,72%86,59%50,57%
14/06/2022GermanyA2 – 51.90 : 3.6635,31%80,59%51,16%

For England, it is the first match after the ‘defeat of the decade’: The British last lost 0-4 at home to Hungary, who will play Germany in the Nations League on September 23. Before that, there was the aforementioned draw against Italy and another against Germany. At the start of the Nations League, England also lost away to Hungary and thus failed to pick up a single point against the  underdogs. They are currently bottom of Group A3 with just two points.

It is particularly disappointing that England has only scored one goal so far. However, if you take a closer look at the Expected Goals statistics in the table below, you can also see that England ran below expectation and should have actually scored five to six goals in these four games.

England International Games June 2022

DateOpponentVenueResultXGPossessionAccuracyDuels won
04/06/2022HungaryA0 – 11.43 : 1.9756,81%87,19%46,94%
07/06/2022GermanyA1 – 11.68 : 0.8338,76%82,63%46,67%
11/06/2022ItalyH0 – 02.17 : 1.2260,28%91,51%43,18%
14/06/2022HungaryH0 – 40.72 : 0.6070,18%88,82%46,98%

Italy Nations League Preview

After missing out on a World Cup ticket and losing the “Finalissima” against Argentina, Italy is currently looking to make amends. They can certainly do that in front of their home crowd against England. A win in the UEFA Nations League would only be a small consolation, but it would still pacify the great football nation a little.

They still have every chance of doing so, but they need to beat England. The advantage for the Italians is also that England will see the game more as a test for the World Cup. Italy will rather try to show pragmatic soccer that leads to a satisfying result, because a good result will mean more to the Italians than it does to the English.

England Nations League preview

The English are fully focused on the World Cup after the poor results of the last matches. The team will try to find itself again, regain self-confidence. However, the Expected Goals values show that England also performed a bit below expectations and was actually better than the results suggested.

Coach Gareth Southgate must now get the uncertainty out of his squad. But the current situation will also show which players the England team boss can rely on. Even though the British won’t be aiming for as good a result as Italy and might even be satisfied with a draw, they won’t be giving the Italians anything. After all, the battle for squad places at the FIFA World Cup in Qatar begins now.

Come On England

Team comparison Italy vs. England

In Italy’s favor:

+ The Nations League is a highlight for the Italians due to their absence from World Cup Betting

+ Italy have not lost a home match in this year’s Nations League season

+ Many young players in the match squad are eager to prove themselves

This speaks for England:

+ It is to be expected that the “under-performing” Englishmen will start scoring again after having good xG statistics in June

+ The central midfield of the English should be superior to that of the Italians

+ The top players from the Premier League are back in match mode and will not be as tired as in June

Italy – England Over Under Prediction

This game is right on the edge as far as the Over/Under prediction is concerned. England will have to attack and will finally want to pad their goal account. Italy, on the other hand, will try to have more time of possession in front of their home crowd and to finish their offensive actions more cleanly.

Nevertheless, this is a clash between two teams that have suffered a number of setbacks in recent months and have not yet regained their full self-confidence. In addition, it is to be expected that England will not go to the last in case of doubt, because the game has more of a testing character for the “Three Lions”.

Therefore, we bet here that less than 2.5 goals are going to be scored.

bet on Italy vs. England UNDER 2,5 goals with odds 1,70 @ Bet365

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Italy – England Match Prediction

The Italians should want to win more than England, but they will face an opponent who is currently better in terms of individual quality. England, on the other hand, will probably approach the match cautiously and will initially strive to establish greater defensive stability than, for example, in the last duel with Hungary.

Therefore, we bet here that sooner or later a stalemate will arise, which will eventually lead to a draw again.

bet on Italy to draw with England with odds 3,20 @ Bet365

Overlyzer Nations League Betting Pick

Italy – England Correct Score Betting

We bet that both teams will score and the match will end in a draw. Accordingly, a 1-1 is the only logical result if you bet on less than 2.5 goals scored at the same time. For England, the result would probably be fine and Italy is currently not consolidated enough to throw more into the game.

bet on a 1-1 draw in the game between Italy and England with odds 6,00 @ Bet365

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FAQ – Questions and answers about Italy – England

When does Italy – England kick off?

The international match between Italy and England will take place on Friday, September 23, 2022 at 8.45pm CET in Milan.

Where can I watch Italy vs. England?

On British television, the match between Italy and England will be broadcast on Channel 4. The Fubo Sports Network will also offer the match as a free online stream.

Where will Italy – England be played?

The Nations League match between Italy and England will take place at the Giuseppe Meazza Stadium in Milan. Kickoff is on September 23 at 8.45pm CET.

What are the betting odds for Italy vs. England?

British bookmaker Bet365 sees Italy in their home match against England slightly in advantage. For a victory of the Italians, you can win back 2.5 times your stake – for that of the English 2.8 times. A draw brings odds of @3.20.

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